With a United States that can no longer be relied upon as it once was, it is important for Europe to seize this opportunity to develop into a military and economic power. However, both governments and businesses in Norway and Europe must step up.
Recently, President Trump has reversed his policy towards Ukraine, shifting from promising to support them "for as long as necessary" to now having an unclear stance on which side the U.S. stands on. The shocking meeting between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House has evolved into a very troubling diplomatic crisis.
If we believe that Putin considers himself bound by a peace agreement longer than just as far as it serves his own grandiose ambitions, we are not only naive – we deny reality. It simply becomes too uncomfortable to acknowledge. The same applies if we think that President Trump and his focus on Make America Great Again (MAGA) will restore a stable world order.
According to the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, Europe can actually defend itself against Russia without the U.S. Since February 2022, American military aid to Ukraine has amounted to €64 billion, while Europe, including the UK, has contributed €62 billion. In 2024, American support constituted €20 billion out of a total of €42 billion spent on defending Ukraine. To compensate for a potentially reduced American presence, the EU must increase its investments by only 0.12 per cent of its GDP.
With the possibility of American forces withdrawing from the continent, it is crucial for Europe to take responsibility for its own security. NATO doctrine now requires that 200,000 American soldiers support the 100,000 European troops already deployed. Without this support, Europe must mobilize an additional 200,000 soldiers and establish a unified European command along with a common industrial policy for producing necessary materials.
Bruegel estimates that European defence spending needs to be rapidly increased to €250 billion annually, corresponding to 3.5 per cent of European GDP – compared to today’s level of about 2 per cent. With Europe having three times as large a population and ten times larger an economy than Russia, this is an affordable amount when considering what is at stake.
Norway and Europe can replace America's contributions to Ukraine. A possible solution could be as follows:
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Europe takes over America’s military contribution of €20 billion equivalent to NOK 230 billion.
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Europe enters into a mineral agreement with Ukraine under reasonable terms to develop minerals as an important industry in Europe.
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Europe purchases weapon systems from American arms manufacturers for Ukraine so that deliveries do not come to a halt.
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Europe and Ukraine build up strong defence and arms industries based on ongoing knowledge from the battlefield and become a military and economic power within 3–5 years while reducing dependence on the U.S.
In this way, Trump gets what he wants: Europe takes care of its own security while still purchasing weapon systems from American arms manufacturers. This will also improve trade balances between the U.S. and Europe. At the same time, Europe and Ukraine work tirelessly to reduce dependence on America as much as possible during Trump's administration.
The annual amount required is NOK 230 billion. The war in Ukraine likely won’t last more than 1–2 years. The Ministry of Finance has estimated Norway's excess revenues at NOK 1270 billion for 2022 and 2023; possibly closer to NOK 2000 billion these days. If so, this amount is manageable – even for Norway alone. Europe can develop significant industries with Ukraine and become an economic power while America's influence diminishes due to trade wars.
It is also extremely important that Europe controls the peace process since President Trump may hinder the confiscation of seized Russian assets. Western countries have seized over NOK 3300 billion which constitutes more than half of the estimated cost need of NOK 5800 billion over the next ten years according to a new UN report.
It has now been three years since Putin launched an all-out war against Ukraine. The war has shown us that economic resilience is essential for national security and that strong businesses can help mitigate conflict consequences. Economic development in Ukraine is not only crucial for its future but also for ensuring safety across all of Europe.
The private sector plays an indispensable role in this context. Increased cooperation among companies across borders in Europe can contribute innovation and efficiency in producing defense materials along with other critical infrastructure.
In Norway, this primarily concerns strong political leadership with execution capability rather than the industry’s ability to deliver; we must shift Norwegian defence from long-term plans into crisis plans focusing on continuous development adapting alongside developments in warfare in Ukraine.
It is thought-provoking that arms production in Ukraine occurs within abandoned garages or factory buildings scattered throughout the country while we in Europe establish modern facilities which take time to build up.
Beyond this necessity lies mobilizing businesses behind frontline efforts to maintain economies within Ukraine and contribute to reconstruction after the war ends; otherwise, the country collapses, leading to Putin's victory.
Digital services are a good example of services that can be delivered today in large volumes from Ukraine. The Ukrainian IT industry is extremely important for the country, being its second-largest source of export income after agriculture. The IT industry is highly innovative, extensively utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) and has implemented advanced cybersecurity solutions. The country is also ahead of the frontrunner, Estonia, in digitising public services despite the ongoing war.
It is urgent to understand the new realities we live in; Europe must take responsibility for its own destiny by actively engaging and becoming a military and economic power. By mobilizing businesses, we can ensure Ukraine's future and the stability and security of the entire European continent.
The time has come for Europe to take control of its own security policy, invest in its defence, and show full solidarity with Ukraine in their existential struggle against Russian aggression.
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